Labarin labarin http://bbs.51touch.com/
TechNiche: Yiwuwar taɓa cikin tantanin halitta
ya zama gaskiya a cikin 2012
A cikin wannan fitowar ta TechNiche, mun kalli 1) binciken kwanan nan daga
Tashoshi cak 2) wayar hannu/ kwamfutar hannu sabunta hanyoyin shigar da kudaden shiga
3) Sabunta kasuwar PC.Dangane da duban tashar mu na kwanan nan, mu
yi imani cewa nunin tabawa a cikin cell na iya fara samar da taro ta hanyar
tsakiyar 2012.Lokacin ya bayyana ya yi daidai da na kowa
ana tsammanin ƙaddamar da iPhone 5 a cikin 2H12.TPK na iya yin haɗarin rasa oda
a baya fiye da yadda ake tsammani.Binciken tashar mu kuma ya nuna a
fiye da yadda ake tsammani iPhone 4s amma iPad 2 mai rauni yana siyar-
ta bayan Thanksgiving hutu karshen mako.4Q
jigilar littafin rubutu ya yi rauni fiye da yadda ake tsammani, ba don ba
na ƙarancin HDD amma saboda ƙarancin ƙarancin buƙata.HDD
ƙarancin yana yin babban tasiri akan motherboard na DIY
kasuwa saboda ƙananan ƴan wasa ba su da ikon yin ciniki
don samun wadatar HDD ko kuma dole ne su biya ƙimar ƙimar 2-3x
don samun shi a cikin tashar.
» Nunin taɓawa a cikin cell don sanya TPK cikin haɗari
Mun yi imanin yawan samar da fasahar cikin-cell na iya farawa da wuri
ana sa ran a tsakiyar 2012.Tabbacin Apple akan hadedde tabawa ya kasance
wanda aka buga a watan Agusta 2011 (duba Karin Bayani) kuma kamfanin na iya
fitar da fasaha don nuna masu yin samfur.Kamar yadda a
Sakamakon, haɗarin TPK na kwance umarni a cikin 2H12 yana ƙaruwa.
» Fiye da abin da ake tsammani iPhone 4s da rauni iPad2
Tashar tamu ta duba bayan karshen mako na godiya ta nuna cewa
IPhone 4s sayar-ta alama ya fi kyau fiye da yadda ake tsammani, yayin da iPad 2
ya fi rauni.
» Sabunta PC: Yanke 4Q11 littafin rubutu da motherboard
kaya
Tasirin ƙarancin HDD ya bayyana ya fi fitowa fili a cikin
Kasuwancin uwa na DIY kamar yadda ƙananan 'yan wasa ke da ƙarancin ciniki
ikon samun wadatar HDD.Muna yankan mahaifar mu ta Taiwan
jigilar kayayyaki zuwa -19% QoQ daga -11% a cikin 4Q a sakamakon haka.Mu kuma
yanke jigilar kayan aikin mu na littafin rubutu 4Q zuwa -4% QoQ daga kwata kwata
mai rauni bukatar.
» Yawancin kamfanonin da ke ƙarƙashin ikonmu a Taiwan sunako dai
bace ko a k'arshen shiriyarsu domin4Q banda
Wistron da Flexium
Ana sa ran jigilar littafin rubutu na Wistron zai yi girma 6% QoQ a cikin 4Q11,
bugun da jagorancin 0-5% girma.Kudin shiga na 4Q11 na Flexium yanzu
akan hanya don isa fiye da 20% QoQ, yana bugun jagorar ɗakin kwana
kwata.
1. Tashoshi na kwanan nan
In-cell Touch Technology don iPhone 5?
Binciken tashar mu yana nuna cewa Apple yana matsawa sosai don taɓawa ta cikin cellfasahar panel ya zama gaskiya.Samar da taro na in-cell touch TFT-LCDnuni na iya zuwa a farkon tsakiyar 2012 kuma lokacin ya bayyana ya yi daidai daiPhone na gaba (wanda ake tsammani kamar iPhone 5) ya ƙaddamar a cikin 2H12.
Mai kama da haɗin gwiwar Apple tare da TPK akan rukunin taɓawa na ƙarni na farko, ikon mallakafasahar tabawa ta cikin cell mai zuwa na iya zama mallakar Apple (duba Karin Bayani).Muyi imani Apple zai iya ba da lasisi ga kamfanoni daban-daban don yin masana'antaApple.Sabili da haka, haɗarin oda asara a TPK a cikin 2H12 ya karu sosailokacin da in-cell touch TFT-LCD taro samar ya zama samuwa.
Kamar yadda muka bayyana a cikin rahoton ƙaddamarwar mu mai kwanan wata 23 ga Nuwamba 2011, TPK na iya zamaKamfanin 'lamination' don allon taɓawa saboda nunin TFT-LCD na cikin-cellhar yanzu yana buƙatar a sanya shi tare da gilashin murfin don tabbatar da cewa dukkanin tsarinyana aiki yadda ya kamata.Amma jimlar kasuwar da ake da ita za ta ragu sosai don TPK.Maimakon yin yadudduka biyu na lamination tare da firikwensin taɓawa (50% ko fiye naAna fitar da firikwensin taɓawa na TPK), TPK na iya yin lamination ɗaya kawai lokacinnunin tabawa a cikin tantanin halitta ya cika da sauri.Mun kiyasta cewa jimillar ribar da ake samudaga laminated in-cell touch nuni module za a rage da kusan biyu bisa uku kamar yaddasakamako.
Muna tsammanin fasahar cikin-cell za a yi amfani da ita ne kawai don nunawa a cikin wayoyin hannu da farko.Wataƙila zai ɗauki aƙalla shekara ɗaya ko biyu kafin a iya aiwatar da shinuni mai girman kwamfutar hannu tare da yawan amfanin ƙasa, a ganinmu.
Hoto 1. In-cell fasahar vs. sauran nau'in fasahar panel touch
IPhone 4s ya bayyana ya fi yadda ake tsammani amma iPad 2 ya kasance mai rauni
Binciken tashar mu yana nuna cewa tallace-tallacen iPhone 4s sun fi yadda ake tsammani amma iPad2 na iya zama mai rauni fiye da yadda ake tsammani bayan hutun karshen mako na godiya.Therauni a cikin iPad 2 na iya kasancewa saboda gasa mai ƙarfi na farashi daga Kindle Fire haka masauran masu yin kwamfutar hannu suna yanke farashin don share kaya.Wannan yana da mummunan tasiriakan Simplo (saboda bayyanar iPad 2 da rauni a cikin litattafan rubutu).Mun yi imanida alama Simlo zai shigo a ƙarshen ƙarshen jagorar 4Q11 ko yana iya ɓacewajagora dan kadan.Idan rashin haɗin kai na Disamba ya zo a kusan $ NT $ 4bn, shizai kasance a ƙarshen ƙarshen jagorar kudaden shiga na 4Q na NT $13bn.
Babban farashin HDD yana juya abokan ciniki baya a cikin kasuwar PC na DIY
Farashin HDD a tashar ya karu da 2-3x tun ambaliyar ruwa ta Thailand a watan Oktoba da PCmasu yin su sun haɓaka farashin wasu kwamfutocin su.Daga cikin ~ 170m HDD bukatar a cikin 4Q11, duka Seagate da Western Digital sun ce kusan 120m za a tallafawa.Mun kiyasta cewa buƙatar PC shine kawai 90m+ a cikin 4Q11 kuma saboda haka, yawancin manyan samfuran PC za su sami tallafin HDDs ɗin su.Yankunan da abin ya fi shafa sune ƙananan ƴan wasan da ke cikin tashar (na kasuwar DIY da kasuwar ajiyar bayanai) da kuma waɗanda ke cikin kasuwar lantarki ta mabukaci (misali HDDs don camcorders ko rikodin TV).
Hoto 2. Farashin kuma babu.na masu siyar da Seagate Barracuda 1TB Internal Hard Drive
Binciken mu na baya-bayan nan ya nuna cewa hauhawar farashin HDD ya ragu da bukatarPCs na tebur a cikin kasuwar DIY.Tun da yawancin mutanen da ke shiga cikin kasuwar DIY sunemasu haɗa tsarin da ƙwararrun PC, mun yi imani da yawa daga cikinsu sun zaɓi jira maimakonbiya babban farashi don HDD.Mun lura cewa kasuwar motherboard a Taiwan (mafi yawa gaKasuwar DIY) ta ragu sosai a sakamakon haka.Bayan ambaliyar ruwa a Thailand a watan Oktoba.Jirgin uwa na Taiwan ya ragu da kashi 20% na Mom a wannan watan, zurfi fiye da 15%MoM ta faɗo a cikin Oktoba 2010. A watan Nuwamba, mun ƙiyasta cewa jigilar kayayyaki na uwa kawai girmada kashi 4% na MoM, kuma ya yi ƙasa da ci gaban 10% na MoM a cikin wannan watan shekara guda da ta gabata.
Ɗaya daga cikin masu yin uwayen uwa ya yi imanin cewa farashin HDD a tashar na iya saukowa a ƙarshenDisamba da farkon 2012, saboda da yawa 'yan kasuwa sun tattara kuma sun sami kuɗi mai kyaufita daga wannan 'bala'i'.
Tun da wadata yana inganta (dangane da sabon sabuntawa daga Seagate da Western Digital)kuma buƙatun yana saukowa saboda mafi girman farashin HDD da ƙarancin yanayi a cikin 1Q12, mun yi imanicewa muna ganin mafi muni dangane da ƙarancin HDD a cikin kasuwar PC a watan Disamba 2011. Musun wuce kololuwar watan gina PC a watan Oktoba.A ƙarƙashin yanayi na al'ada, ƙimar gudua cikin ƙaramin wata a cikin 1Q yana da 30%+ ƙasa da mafi girman watan a cikin 4Q.Tun da kawai 25-30% na duniyaAmbaliyar ruwa ta Thailand ta shafi wadatar HDD, muna iya isa ga buƙatun wadata na ɗan lokacima'auni don kasuwar PC a ƙarshen Janairu ko Fabrairu.Idan har yanzu 'yan kasuwa HDD ba su sayar da nasu bahannun jari a hannun a watan Disamba ko Janairu kafin Sabuwar Shekarar Lunar, mai yiwuwa ne suzai sayar da su a kan ƙaramin farashi daga baya saboda wadatar HDD zai inganta ne kawai daga yanzugaba, kodayake ƙarancin a cikin kasuwar da ba ta PC ba na iya daɗewa.
2. Sabunta Sarkar Harajin Samar da Wayar hannu/Tallat
Hoto 3. Bangaren wayar hannu da na hannu: kudaden shiga na wata da kwata
HTC- Ƙimar raguwa a cikin tallace-tallace na Nuwamba (wanda aka ruwaito a -30% MoM) ana sa ran takasuwa bayan kamfanin ya saukar da jagorancin 4Q akan 23 Nuwamba 2011. DisambaDole ne tallace-tallace ya ragu da ƙasa da kashi 6% na MoM don biyan jagorancin kuɗin shiga na leburGirman kudaden shiga na YoY (watau ~NT$104bn).
Kama– Ragewar 19% na kudaden shiga na MoM a watan Nuwamba ya fi dacewa da kasuwatsammanin.Har yanzu kamfanin ba zai iya ba da kwanan wata lokacin da shuka Suzhou zai iya baa dawo da samarwa amma ana sa ran za a shawo kan matsalar a watan Disamba.Mu 4QBa zai yuwu a cimma hasashen tallace-tallace na NT $8.89bn ba.Mun yi imani 4Q tallace-tallace na iya zamaa cikin kewayon NT $8.0bn zuwa NT$8.5bn.
Simplo- 4Q tallace-tallacen da ba a haɗa shi ba zai yiwu ya shigo a ƙarshen ƙarshen jagorancinsaNT $13.0-13.8bn.Dangane da jigilar kaya a watan Disamba, yana iya ma rasa 4Qjagora dan kadan.Mun yi imanin wannan ya samo asali ne saboda rauni a cikin littafin rubutu da iPad2.
Aikin Tech- Kamfanin bai sanar da tallace-tallace na Nuwamba ba tukuna, amma muna sa ranzai girma 3-5% MoM.Don isa ga ƙaramin ƙarshen jagorar kudaden shiga da aka bita,Dole ne tallace-tallacen Disamba ya kasance aƙalla lebur MoM.Duk da haka, mun yi imani da kamfanin nehar yanzu yana iya girma a 7% MoM a cikin Disamba galibi saboda tasirin odadaga masu fafatawa a Japan (sakamakon ambaliyar ruwa ta Thailand).Kuɗin mu na 4Q11ƙiyasin ya kasance baya canzawa a raguwar 7.6% QoQ.
Flexium- Haɓakar tallace-tallace na Nuwamba ya zo cikin ƙarfi fiye da yadda ake tsammani a 9% MoMyafi saboda oda canja wurin daga Japan fafatawa a gasa (saboda daAmbaliyar ruwa ta Thailand).Ya kamata a ci gaba da haɓaka odar odar zuwa Disamba,don haka a yanzu muna tsammanin 4Q11 zai yi girma 25% QoQ, mafi kyau fiye da ainihin jagorancinsa na alebur kwata da kiyasin mu na baya na 5% QoQ girma.
TPK- Kamfanin ya sake dawo da tallace-tallace na kowane wata (duba hoto 3) saboda bisatsohuwar hanyar ƙididdigewa, haɓakar canjin kuɗin waje na iya haifar da ababban canji a lambobin tallace-tallace na wata-wata a cikin TW$.
Lissafi na baya:
Tallace-tallace na wata-wata a cikin TW$ = (Tarukan tallace-tallace na shekara-zuwa-yanzu-wata a cikin dalar Amurka x ƙimar FX na ƙarshen wata) - (Shekara zuwa-tallace-tallace da aka tara a watan da ya gabata a cikin TW$)
Lissafin da aka sake faɗi:
Tallace-tallace na wata-wata a cikin TW$ = Siyar da kowane wata a cikin dalar Amurka x ƙimar FX na ƙarshen wata
Yana iya zama mafi kyau a kwatanta kudaden shiga na wata-wata cikin sharuddan dalar Amurka, a ganinmu.Wannan zai iya ba mu ahoto na gaskiya na tafiyar kasuwanci, kamar yadda duk kasuwancin ke yin su a cikin dalar Amurka.TPK zai iya girmakudaden shiga (a cikin sharuddan dalar Amurka) ta
5-10% yanzu tare da ainihin jagorar 0-5% girma, wanda ke cikilayi tare da hasashen mu na 8.5% QoQ girma.Kudaden shigarta na Disamba a yanzu na iya yin watsi da kashi 35% na MoM zuwasaduwa da ƙaramin ƙarshen jagorar da aka bita da kuma 26% MoM don saduwa da hasashen mu.
Hoto 4. TPK a baya an sanar da shi
3. PC Market Update
Littafin rubutu
Mun yanke hasashen jigilar kayan aikin mu na 4Q11 zuwa 4% QoQ raguwa, ƙasa da namu.hasashen da ya gabata na kwata kwata da matsakaicin tarihin shekaru 5 na + 10% girma na QoQ, galibisaboda raunin macro.Littafin bayanin kula ODM ya bayyana yana da ɗan tasiri daga HDDkarancin kwatankwacin masu yin uwayen uwa, saboda ODMs na littafin rubutu ana tallafawa da samaSunayen alamar alama waɗanda ke da fifiko a cikin wadatar HDD.Wistron da alama ba shi da rauni sosaibukata da ƙarancin HDD.Mun yi imanin ya kasance saboda ƙarfi a cikin kwamfutocin kasuwanci na Lenovo.Sakamakon haka, Wistron shine kawai littafin rubutu ODM wanda zai yuwu ya doke jagorar 4Q11.TheKamfanin asali ya jagoranci don 0-5% QoQ girma don 4Q11 kuma yanzu zai iya girma 6% QoQ.
Muna sa ran jigilar littafin rubutu na Taiwan zai ƙi 10% QoQ a cikin 1Q12, ƙasa da shekara 5Matsakaicin tarihi na raguwar 11% saboda wasu buƙatun da ake buƙata da kuma wadatar HDDm don ragewa a cikin 1Q12.
Hoto 5. Kawo Littafin Rubutun Taiwan (kowane-wata)
Hoto 6. Jirgin Ruwa na Taiwan (Kwata)
Quanta (manyan abokan ciniki: Apple, HP, Lenovo, Dell, Acer)
Ana sa ran jigilar littafin rubutu na Nuwamba zai ragu da kashi 15% na MoM, mafi muni fiye da namuHasashen da ya gabata na raguwar kashi 8% da yarjejeniya kasuwa.Muna tsammanin wannan sabodarauni a cikin litattafan mabukaci na HP (HP yana lissafin 25-30% na jigilar kayayyaki), maimakontasiri daga ƙarancin HDD.Mun kiyasta jigilar kayayyaki na Disamba zuwa raguwa zuwa raka'a 4.4mbin tsarin yanayi na al'ada.An shigo da jigilar littafin rubutu na Oktoba a raka'a 5.3m,fiye da hasashenmu na baya galibi saboda tasirin ƙarancin casing ɗin ƙarfe dagaKama (saboda rufewar shukar Suzhou) ya bayyana bai kai mu da farko bakimanta.
• Ana sa ran jigilar litattafan rubutu 4Q11 yanzu zai ƙi 2% QoQ idan aka kwatanta da na bayahasashen haɓakar 3% saboda rashin ƙarfi fiye da yadda ake tsammani daga abokan cinikin sa a cikiNuwamba da Disamba;muna tsammanin wannan ya fi girma saboda rauni a cikin HP.Wannanyana nufin kamfanin ba zai rasa jagorancin jigilar kayayyaki na 2011 na raka'a 57m da kashi 2% ba.jagorancinsa na 4Q11 na kwata kwata.
Muna sa ran bukatar za ta ci gaba da yin kasala a watan Janairu saboda karancin kwanakin aiki sabodaSabuwar Shekarar Sinawa (ranar 23 ga Janairu 2012) kuma ta yi hasashen za ta ragu da kashi 16% na MoM.1Q12,mun ƙiyasta shi zai ƙi 11%, kusan daidai da matsakaicin shekaru 5 na raguwar 12% QoQ.
• Muna kuma sa ran 4Q11 babban gefe ya zama ƙasa da 3Q11 na 3.7% kamar yadda akwai haɗin gwiwa mafi kyau.na samfurori masu girma a cikin 4Q11 wanda ke sa yawan MVA ƙarami.Farashin OPEXan kiyasta kashi a cikin 4Q11 zai sauko zuwa 2.0-2.2% daga 2.5% a cikin 3Q11.Wannan shinemafi yawa a cikin layi tare da tsammaninmu na 1.3% gefen aiki don 4Q11.
Compal (manyan abokan ciniki: Acer, Lenovo, Dell)
• Muna kula da hasashen jigilar littattafanmu na Nuwamba na raguwar 6% na MoM da Disambana wani 3% na MoM ya ragu saboda ƙarancin buƙata amma ba ƙarancin HDD ba, a cewarkamfani.jigilar littafin rubutu na Oktoba ya kasance raka'a 3.2m, galibi yayi daidai da hasashen mu.
• Yanzu muna hasashen 4Q11 don ƙi 9% QoQ, a ƙarshen ƙarshen 5-10% ƙi.jagora kuma ya yi ƙasa da hasashenmu na baya na raguwar kashi 7%, saboda rauni fiye da-bukata da ake tsammani daga manyan abokan cinikinta.
• An kiyasta jigilar littafin rubutu na Janairu zai ragu da kashi 21% na MoM saboda sabuwar shekara ta kasar Sinhutu.Muna tsammanin jigilar kayayyaki 1Q12 zai ƙi 8% QoQ, ƙasa da matsakaicin tarihin shekaru 5na 4% raguwa saboda Acer yanzu abokin ciniki ya fi rauni fiye da 'yan shekarun da suka gabata.TheAna tsammanin raguwar zai zama mafi sauƙi fiye da sauran ODMs na littafin rubutu saboda ƙananan tushe a ciki4Q11.
• Kamfanin yana kula da 4Q11 babban gefe don zama mai lebur zuwa 3Q11 a 5.0%.Zai yi kawaifara jigilar ultrabooks a cikin 1Q12.
Wistron (babban abokan ciniki: Dell, Lenovo, HP)
• Hasashen jigilar littattafan mu na Nuwamba yanzu ya fi 0.3m hasashen da muka yi a bayaraka'a galibi saboda buƙatu fiye da yadda ake tsammani daga kwamfutocin kasuwanci na Lenovo, a ganinmu.Ya kamata jigilar Disamba ya sauko zuwa raka'a 2.6m saboda abubuwan yanayi.Oktobajigilar kayayyaki sun shigo a raka'a 3.1m, dan kadan sama da hasashen mu saboda karfi fiye da-bukatan da ake tsammani.
• 4Q11 jigilar kayayyaki a yanzu an kiyasta zai girma 6% QoQ, sama da jagorar0-5% girma da kuma hasashen mu na baya na haɓaka 2%, saboda ƙarfi fiye da yadda ake tsammani.bukata daga Lenovo, a ganinmu.
• Mun lura cewa Wistron shine kawai ODM wanda ake sa ran zai doke shiriyar jigilar kayayyaki ta 4Q11,kuma ya bayyana yana da ɗan tasiri ko rashin tasiri daga ƙarancin HDD.Muna tsammanin ƙarfin shinesuna zuwa daga Lenovo kuma musamman kwamfutocin kasuwancin sa suna samun fifiko mafi girma a HDDwadata.
• Muna sa ran jigilar littafin rubutu na Janairu zai ragu zuwa raka'a 2.1m saboda sabuwar shekara ta kasar Sinbukukuwa da 1Q12 don sauke ta 10% QoQ, daidai da matsakaicin shekaru 5 na raguwar 11%.
• Har ila yau, kamfanin yana tsammanin 4Q11 babban gefe da kuma gefen aiki don inganta daga 3Q11kamar yadda TV akan iya aiki ya fi mayar warwarewa, rage darajar dala NT da babban littafin rubutuma'auni.
• Dangane da 2012, yana tsammanin raka'o'in littafin rubutu 33-35m (10-17% girma na YoY) da na'urorin kwamfutar hannu 3-4m(a kan raka'a 1m wanda kamfani ke jagoranta don 2011) yayin da yake samun ƙarin abokan cinikin kwamfutar hannu.
• Muna tsammanin Wistron ne kawai zai aika da litattafan rubutu na 32.8m a cikin 2012. Wistron yana tsammanin samun riba.ƙarin rabo daga abokan cinikin sa a cikin na'urorin hannu a cikin 2012.
Inventec (manyan abokan ciniki: HP, Toshiba)
Muna sa ran jigilar littafin rubutu na Nuwamba zai ragu zuwa raka'a 1.3m daga 1.5m a cikin Oktoba,kasa da hasashen mu na baya na 1.55m.An kiyasta cewa Disamba zai ragu zuwa raka'a 1.1msaboda yanayin yanayi.Mun yi imanin HP ya ba da gudummawa ga yawancin rauninsa a cikin watanni 2 da suka gabata.
• Ana hasashen jigilar kayan aikin mu na littafin rubutu 4Q11 yanzu akan raguwar 10% QoQ, mafi muni fiye da na baya.hasashen samun 5% kamar yadda muke da kyakkyawan fata a cikin buƙatun HP a baya lokacin da Inventec ta doketsammanin kasuwa a watan Satumba amma tun daga lokacin tallace-tallace ya ragu.
• Ana tsammanin Janairu zai ragu da 14% MoM da 1Q12 don raguwa da 14% QoQ, daidai da taMatsakaicin tarihin shekaru 5.
Pegatron (babban abokin ciniki: Asus) incl.netbook
• Muna ɗan ɗan canza lambar jigilar littafin rubutu na Nuwamba daga raka'a 1.25m zuwa 1.2m, a17% MoM sun ragu galibi saboda rauni a cikin littafin yanar gizo yayin da littafin rubutu na yau da kullun ya ragebarga.Ana sa ran jigilar kayayyaki na Disamba zai ragu zuwa raka'a 1.1m saboda yanayin yanayi.Oktobajigilar kayayyaki ya shigo a raka'a 1.45m, daidai da hasashen mu.
• Jirgin mu na littafin rubutu na 4Q11 yanzu yana kallon raguwar 10% QoQ, ƙasa da na baya.hasashen raguwar kashi 7% musamman saboda rashin ƙarfi fiye da yadda ake tsammani a netbook.
• Kamfanin yana jagorantar raguwar 10-15% a cikin littafin rubutu na yau da kullum, netbook da kwamfutar hannujigilar kayayyaki tare a cikin 4Q11 kuma idan mun haɗa da jigilar kwamfutar hannu, muna tsammanin 4Q11 zai ƙi.12% QoQ a cikin jagorar kamfanin.
• Yanzu an kiyasta jigilar littafin rubutu na Janairu zai ragu da kashi 14% na MoM zuwa raka'a 0.95m sabodaBukukuwan Sabuwar Shekara na kasar Sin.Mun kiyasta 1Q12 don saukewa ta 12% QoQ, mafi kyau fiye da shekaru 5Matsakaicin tarihi na raguwar 24% QoQ, azaman ƙari na sabbin abokan cinikin littafin rubutu na yau da kullunyakamata ya taimaka daidaita tsarin kwata-kwata, a ganinmu.
• Muna sa ran jigilar kwamfutar hannu 4Q11 ya isa raka'a 0.61m, yana raguwa 24% QoQ saboda daya-jinkirta wata (zuwa Disamba) a ƙaddamar da Transformer Prime.
Allon allo
Mun gano cewa ƙarancin HDD yana da babban tasiri akan uwayen uwa fiye da littattafan rubutu, kumamusamman fiye da haka a cikin DIY kasuwa fiye da ODM kasuwar kamar yadda DIY kasuwar ne mafirarrabuwar kawuna tare da 'yan wasa da ke da ƙarancin ciniki.Don haka muna sake duba mu4Q11 motherboard kimanta zuwa 16.6m (19% QoQ raguwa) daga 18.2m raka'a (11% QoQ ƙi).Elitegroup galibi yana cikin kasuwar ODM na uwa, don haka HDD ba shi da tasirikarancin kuma an kiyasta zai ragu a cikin 4Q11.Gigabyte, wanda ke mayar da hankali kan DIYkasuwa, ya ga raguwa sosai a cikin Oktoba saboda ƙarancin HDD da gyaran kaya, wanda shineBabban dalilin sake fasalin mu na ƙasa a cikin 4Q11.
Koyaya, muna tsammanin farashin HDD a cikin tashar zai fara saukowa a farkon1Q12 yayin da samar da HDD ke murmurewa a hankali daga ambaliya a Thailand.A sakamakon haka, ya kamata muduba wasu buƙatun uwayen uwa a cikin 1Q12, don haka yana haifar da ɗanɗano sama da na zamanirubu'in 2% QoQ raguwa fiye da matsakaicin shekaru 5 na tarihi na raguwar 3% QoQ.
Hoto 7. Jirgin Jirgin Mama na Taiwan (A kowane wata)
Hoto 8. Jirgin Sama na Motherboard na Taiwan (Kwata-kwata)
Pegatron (4938 TT, ba a ƙididdigewa ba)
• Muna sake duba jigilar kayan aikin uwa a watan Nuwamba da raka'a 0.2m zuwa 1.8m sabodatasirin karancin HDD kuma Disamba yakamata ya sauko zuwa 1.7m a karshenabokan ciniki suna jinkirin sayayya bisa hasken hauhawar farashin HDD.Oktobar motherboard kayaRaka'a 2m, daidai da hasashen mu, kuma sun ƙi 5% MoM saboda yanayin yanayi.
• Kamfanin ya jagoranci raguwar 15-20% QoQ akan jigilar uwa na 4Q11.Mun kiyastaraguwar 19% QoQ, ƙananan ƙarshen jagora, ganin cewa ƙarancin HDD ya yi tasirida motherboard da kuma sassan tebur mafi.
• Dangane da 1Q12, mun ƙiyasta shi zai ƙi 13% QoQ, daidai da matsakaicin shekaru 4, kamar yaddarauni a cikin buƙata yana ci gaba ko da bayan 4Q11 mafi muni fiye da yadda ake tsammani.Mun yi alamaa cikin sabuwar shekara ta Sinawa a farkon shekara mai zuwa kuma an kiyasta raguwar 18% na MoMmotherboard kaya a cikin Janairu.
Gigabyte (2376 TT, ba ƙididdiga ba)
• Mun yi kiyasin jigilar kayan aikin uwa a watan Nuwamba zai ƙaru zuwa raka'a 1.3 daga 1m a cikin Oktobakamar yadda kaya ya faɗi zuwa matakin da ya fi dacewa.An kiyasta cewa Disamba zai ragu kaɗan zuwaRaka'a 1.2m saboda rauni a ƙarshen kasuwa sakamakon hauhawar farashin HDD.Kamfanin ya ganiraguwa mai kaifi a cikin jigilar kayan aikin uwa na Oktoba na 34% na MoM kuma ya faɗi ƙasa da na bayakimantawa saboda ƙarancin HDD da gyaran kaya.
• Kamfanin ya sake nazarin jagorancin jigilar kayayyaki na 4Q11 daga 10-15% QoQ ƙi a cikinSatumba zuwa 30% raguwa.Ƙididdigan jigilar kayayyaki na 4Q11 na motherboard yayi daidai daKamfanin ya sake fasalin jagorancin 30% QoQ ya ragu musamman saboda tasirin ƙarancin HDD.Bukatar China na ganin raguwar tafiya, a cewar kamfanin.
• Muna sa ran jigilar uwa a watan Janairu zai ragu da kashi 17% na MoM zuwa raka'a 1m saboda SinanciSabuwar shekara hutu mako mai tsawo.Hasashen mu na 1Q12 shine haɓakar QoQ 8%, ƙasa da naMatsakaicin tarihin ci gaban QoQ mai lamba biyu a wani ɓangare saboda buƙatar babban ƙarshenmotherboards yawanci suna zuwa a cikin 1Q amma wannan lokacin yana iya zuwa kawai a cikin 2Q12 bayanƙaddamar da gadar Ivy saboda masu amfani na iya jinkirta siyan su.
MicroStar (2377 TT, ba a ƙididdigewa ba)
• Kamfanin ya jagoranci ga watan Nuwamba;mun yi hasashen karuwar 5% na MoM saboda akasa-fiye da tsammanin Oktoba tushe.Disamba jigilar kayayyaki na motherboard an kiyasta zuwazama sluggish a 1m raka'a.Jirgin uwa na Oktoba ya shigo cikin muni fiye da muHasashen da ya gabata da jagorar 10-20% MoM raguwa saboda tasirin HDDkarancin a cikin 2H Oktoba, a cewar kamfanin.
• Yanzu muna sa ran jigilar motherboard 4Q11 zai ƙi 21% QoQ, idan aka kwatanta da na bayahasashen raguwar kashi 17% saboda karancin HDD wanda ya shafi kananan 'yan wasakamar MicroStar fiye da manya.
Muna sa ran watan Janairu zai ragu da kashi 15% na Mom saboda Sabuwar Shekarar Sinawa, amma 1Q12 zai karu da kashi 20%QoQ saboda ƙananan-fiye da matsakaici 4Q11 da yanayi na al'ada.
Elitegroup (2331 TT, ba a kimanta)
• Muna sake fasalin jigilar kayan aikin uwa na Nuwamba zuwa 1.65m daga raka'a 1.55m azaman HDDkarancin ya bayyana yana da ƙarancin tasiri akan kasuwar ODM, inda Elitegroup ke dababban fallasa, kuma mafi kyawun buƙatu daga China, a cewar kamfanin.Muna sa ranDisamba ya ragu zuwa raka'a 1.4m saboda babban tushe na Nuwamba, yayin da China ta ragein mun gwada da karfi fiye da sauran yankuna.Oktoba ya shigo a raka'a 1.5m, ƙasa da namuHasashen da aka yi a baya saboda raguwar umarni daga China bayan hutun ranarta na kasa.
• Yanzu muna kimanta 4Q11 don ƙi 5% QoQ, mafi muni fiye da hasashen da muka gabata na 2%raguwa saboda ƙasa da abin da ake tsammani a watan Oktoba.Koyaya, mun lura cewa 4Q11raguwa shine mafi ƙasƙanci a tsakanin 'yan wasan motherboard saboda yawan maida hankali a cikinODM kasuwar.
Muna sa ran watan Janairu zai ragu zuwa raka'a 1.2m saboda sabuwar shekara ta kasar Sin da kuma 1Q12 zai ragu11% QoQ a matsayin tarihi na 1Q shine ƙarancin yanayi ga kamfanin.
Karin bayani
Hoto 9. Haɗe-haɗen Haɗin Haɓaka Haɗin Haɗin Kan Apple
Game da Halayen Haƙƙin mallaka:Patent FIGS.1A-1C yana kwatanta misali wayar hannu, dijitalna'urar mai jarida da kwamfuta ta sirri wanda kowanne ya ƙunshi misali hadedde allon taɓawa;FIG.2 shine toshe zane na tsarin lissafin misali wanda ke kwatanta aiwatarwa ɗayana misalin hadedde allon taɓawa;FIG.13A yana misalta ƙayyadaddun tsari na Multi-nunin aikin pixels ɗin da aka haɗa zuwa yankuna waɗanda ke aiki azaman kewayawa na taɓawa yayin databawa lokaci na tabawa.
Taƙaicen Apple:Tabbacin yana da alaƙa da taɓawa da kewayawa da aka haɗa cikin pixel nunitari (watau tarkacen kayan yadudduka masu samar da pixels nuni) na nuni, kamar suLCD nuni.Abubuwan da'irar da ke cikin nunin pixel stackups za a iya haɗa su wuri ɗaya don samarwataba jin kewayawa wanda ke jin taɓawa akan nuni ko kusa da nuni.Taɓawar kewayawa zata iyasun haɗa da, alal misali, layukan siginar taɓawa, kamar layin tuƙi da layukan hankali, yankunan ƙasa,da sauran hanyoyin sadarwa.
Haɗe-haɗen allon taɓawa zai iya haɗawa da abubuwa da'ira masu ayyuka da yawa waɗanda zasu iya zama wani ɓangare nada'irar nuni da aka ƙera don aiki azaman kewayar tsarin nuni don samar da hotoakan nunin, kuma zai iya samar da wani yanki na kewayawa na taɓawa na tsarin jin taɓawawanda ke jin ɗaya ko fiye yana taɓawa ko kusa da nunin.
Abubuwan kewaye da ayyuka da yawa na iya zama, misali, capacitors a cikin nunin pixels na LCDwanda za'a iya daidaita shi don aiki azaman capacitors / electrodes, na'urorin lantarki na gama gari,wayoyi masu gudanarwa/hanyoyi, da sauransu, na kewayawar nuni a cikin tsarin nuni, kuma hakan na iya yiwuwaa saita don yin aiki azaman abubuwan da'ira na kewayawar jin taɓawa.Ta wannan hanyar, donmisali, a wasu sifofi nuni tare da hadedde iyawar tabawa na iya zamaƙera ta amfani da ƴan sassa da/ko matakan sarrafawa, kuma nunin da kansa na iya zama sirara,ya fi haske, kuma yana buƙatar ƙarancin ƙarfi.
Source: www.patentlyapple.com
Bayar da Lamba 7,995,041
Lokacin aikawa: Dec-23-2019